By Standard Chartered has sharply upgraded its 2026 growth forecast for the UAE economy, now projecting GDP expansion of around 5 percent, up from an earlier estimate of 4 percent. The bank’s revised outlook places the UAE well ahead of the global growth average, building on a strong 2025 in which the economy’s nominal GDP is estimated to have reached roughly $569 billion.
Other major institutions echo the optimism. The Central Bank of the UAE projects growth near 5.3 percent, the IMF expects about 5 percent, and the World Bank sees similar momentum carrying into 2027. Non-oil sectors are doing much of the heavy lifting, with tourism, aviation, logistics, financial services, and real estate all showing strong demand. Standard Chartered forecasts UAE foreign trade will approach the $1 trillion mark this year, with the Asia corridor alone accounting for roughly a third of that volume.
The banking sector also looks well positioned to support this growth. Deposit growth continues to outpace private-sector credit expansion, giving the UAE the lowest loan-to-deposit ratio in the GCC and leaving banks ample room to finance both domestic projects and cross-border lending. Inflation is expected to remain contained at around 1.8 percent, supported by diversified supply chains and stable housing costs — giving policymakers room to keep monetary conditions supportive of investment.
Energy exports have also been a bright spot. UAE crude exports have returned to near-prewar levels after regional disruptions earlier in the year, restoring a key pillar of fiscal stability even as some sectors, including hospitality, continue to feel the effects of elevated costs. Taken together, analysts see an economy that has weathered a turbulent stretch and is now moving from resilience toward a broader, more diversified recovery.
Sources: FastBull, “UAE Economy Booms: 5% GDP Growth Forecast for 2026” (fastbull.com); The National, “The UAE’s economy is moving from resilience to recovery” (thenationalnews.com)
