By Gulf off-plan property sales have powered a decade of tower cranes and record transaction volumes, largely because buyers, not developers, carried most of the financial risk. That model is now cracking, according to Dar Global chief executive Ziad El Chaar, who told AGBI this week that the region is moving toward European style rules that force developers to fund far more of the construction themselves.
Key takeaways
- Dar Global’s CEO says buyers are increasingly refusing to pay more than half a project’s price when only around a fifth of it is built.
- Off-plan sales made up more than 70 percent of Dubai property deals in 2025, meaning any shift would hit the emirate hardest.
- Saudi Arabia is already tying payment schedules to construction progress rather than fixed dates, a preview of where the wider Gulf may be headed.
Why the Gulf Off-Plan Property Model Is Under Pressure
Off-plan sales let developers collect payments from buyers in stages while a project is still under construction, often before the first concrete is poured. That arrangement has effectively let buyers finance the Gulf’s building boom. El Chaar told AGBI that dynamic is fading fast. “People want to see something progressing to a much bigger extent before they engage,” he said. “This trend will definitely come to the region.”
Buyers, he said, are increasingly balking at paying more than half of a purchase price in the first two years of a project when construction has only reached about a fifth completion. Dar Global, the international arm of Saudi developer Dar Al Arkan and one of the Trump Organization’s regional development partners, has watched that resistance build across its own project pipeline.
Dubai Has the Most to Lose
Nowhere would a shift matter more than Dubai, where off-plan transactions accounted for more than 70 percent of property deals in 2025. A move toward construction linked payments would force developers to put up significantly more of their own capital before collecting the bulk of a sale price, squeezing balance sheets that have grown used to buyer financed growth.
Dubai’s Land Department already requires all buyer funds to sit in regulated escrow accounts, with developers only able to draw down cash as independently verified construction milestones are met. El Chaar expects that principle to tighten further, mirroring markets like France, where off-plan payments have long tracked construction milestones, and Poland, which strengthened its escrow regime in 2022 and added a guarantee fund to protect deposits.
Saudi Arabia Is Already Moving
Saudi Arabia is arguably ahead of the curve here. The kingdom widened foreign access to property ownership this year and is tying payment schedules to construction progress rather than calendar dates, El Chaar said, offering the clearest regional template for where the rest of the Gulf could go. Separately, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority has opened consultation on new controls governing real estate ownership by listed companies, investment funds and special purpose entities, part of a broader effort to tighten oversight as foreign capital flows in.
El Chaar argues the shift will ultimately require developers to hold stronger balance sheets to secure project financing, since they can no longer lean as heavily on buyer deposits. It could also curb speculative flipping, where investors buy early and resell after a few payments without ever intending to hold the finished unit. “I can tell you that globally this is dying out,” he said.
Demand Is Slowing, Not Disappearing
The shift is unfolding against a backdrop of regional uncertainty. The US Israeli war with Iran has added stress to Gulf property markets, disrupting both sales timelines and supply chains, but El Chaar said buyers are pausing rather than walking away. “At times of uncertainty, people will wait, will delay, but they will not cancel,” he said.
Dar Global said demand for its Gulf projects has held up through the conflict, helped by a large domestic buyer base in Saudi Arabia. Customers from 56 nationalities, including American, British, French, Chinese, Indian and Pakistani buyers, expressed interest in the company’s projects between January and June, a sign that international appetite for Gulf real estate has not evaporated even as the payment model behind it starts to change.
What It Means for the Market
A slower, more construction linked version of Gulf off-plan property sales would likely mean fewer, better capitalised developers, more predictable delivery timelines, and less room for speculative flipping. For buyers, it should mean stronger protection against stalled projects. For developers with thin balance sheets, it could mean a much harder road to financing new launches. Either way, the free flowing, buyer funded model that built much of Dubai’s skyline appears to be entering its final stretch.
For more on how the broader property market is adjusting, see our coverage of the UAE real estate market’s Q2 cooldown.